SNIPEF

January 1, 2026

The Q4 State of Trade report remains Stable because workload and sentiment have improved modestly and cashflow has not deteriorated, while major disruption risks remain contained. The counterweight is a clear deterioration in margins and continued cost inflation, alongside persistent workforce constraints. The overall position is therefore stable in activity terms, but more pressured financially, with risks concentrated in profitability and skills capacity rather than immediate demand.

Cost pressures remain widespread in Q4, with 93% of firms reporting input price increases. While the share reporting significant increases eased slightly compared with Q3, inflationary pressure remains entrenched.

Confidence in the profession improved quarter on quarter, with 45% confident or very confident in Q4 (up from 33% in Q3), alongside reduced neutral and pessimistic responses. This suggests firmer short term sentiment despite margin pressure.

Workforce expansion remains cautious. The share likely to increase headcount eased slightly to 26% (from 29% in Q3), with 29% expecting staffing to remain the same. Intentions to increase plumbing and heating operatives remain lower at 17% (down from 24% in Q3), underlining continued reluctance to add skilled technical capacity.

Q4 shows modest improvement in activity and confidence, supported by slightly stronger workloads and a firmer order book balance, and a small uplift in on-time payment experience. However, the quarter is defined by a sharper squeeze on profitability, with a clear rise in firms reporting falling margins, and continued evidence of cost pressure and growing low-level project friction. The net shift is towards stable or slightly improved trading conditions, but with noticeably tighter financial headroom.