SNIPEF

April 3, 2026

REPORT

The Q1 2026 State of Trade report remains Stable, but increasingly cautious. Trading activity has not fallen away, payment performance remains broadly consistent and product availability is manageable. However, forward order books are more finely balanced, margins have weakened and confidence has softened, particularly in relation to the wider UK economy.

Trading activity remained broadly steady, with 32% of firms busier than expected and 39% trading as expected. However, 29% reported quieter conditions, showing that demand remains present but less evenly distributed across the profession.

Forward order books are mixed, with 23% above expectations, 39% as expected and 39% lower than expected. This suggests that future demand remains active, but the pipeline is less assured than in previous reporting.

Cost pressure remains the dominant challenge, with 93% of firms reporting increased material and product costs. Product availability remains manageable, with 90% rating availability as good or average, meaning the issue is less about access to products and more about the cost of securing them.

Confidence in the profession has become more cautious, with only 28% confident or very confident about the year ahead. Confidence in the UK economy remains significantly weaker, with only 7% confident and 76% pessimistic or very pessimistic.

Workforce expansion remains subdued. Only 19% of respondents expect to increase staffing levels, while just 15% are likely to recruit an apprentice. Skills availability remains constrained, with 68% reporting low availability of qualified plumbing and heating professionals.

Q1 shows a profession that remains active and resilient, but with weaker confidence, tighter margins and constrained workforce capacity. The issue is therefore not a lack of immediate demand, but reduced financial headroom and limited capacity for future growth.